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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not seen the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. A key demand centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” commented the president, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.